H-1B Visa Shake-Up: Wage-Based Model, Green Card Criticism, and the US “Gold Card” Proposal
A New Direction in US Immigration
The United States is preparing for a sweeping overhaul of its skilled migration system, with reforms that could reshape opportunities for foreign professionals—particularly those from India.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has described the existing H-1B visa programme as a “scam” that displaces American workers. Speaking in late August, he confirmed that the administration intends to replace the lottery-based allocation with a wage-based system, alongside a new residency pathway for wealthy investors, branded the “Gold Card.”
“The current H-1B visa system is a scam that lets foreign workers fill American job opportunities,” Lutnick said in an interview. “Hiring American workers should be the priority of all great American businesses.”
His remarks represent one of the clearest signals yet that the government is preparing a fundamental shift in how skilled migration will be managed.
The H-1B Visa: Gateway for Indian Professionals
The H-1B has long been the primary route for skilled foreign workers in the United States, particularly in technology, engineering, and healthcare. Each year, 65,000 standard visas are issued, with an additional 20,000 available for advanced degree holders from US institutions.
Competition is intense. In fiscal year 2023, over 780,000 applications were filed for the 85,000 available slots. To cope with this demand, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) runs a random lottery.
Indian professionals dominate the programme. In 2023, they accounted for more than 72% of approved petitions, with Chinese nationals a distant second at just under 12%. Major technology firms in both the US and India rely heavily on this pipeline of skilled labour, and for many families, the H-1B represents the first step toward a Green Card and permanent residency.
From Lottery to Wage-Based Allocation
Under the proposed reforms, visas would no longer be awarded by chance. Instead, preference would be given to applicants whose US employers offer higher salaries. Lutnick argued that the change would align immigration with national economic interests.
“We’re going to change that programme because that’s terrible,” he said.
Potential Advantages
Supporters of the move highlight three possible benefits:
Higher salaries rewarded: Senior engineers and data scientists may find it easier to secure visas.
Curbing wage suppression: By discouraging the hiring of cheaper foreign labour, the system could reduce downward pressure on salaries for US workers.
Focus on competitiveness: Policymakers believe prioritising high-earning roles ensures the United States attracts top global talent.
Risks for Indian Workers
However, critics warn the wage-based model could come at a cost.
Entry-level exclusion: Fresh graduates from Indian universities, who often earn below US averages, may struggle to qualify.
Reduced social mobility: A system skewed toward already well-paid candidates risks narrowing opportunities for upward progression.
Industry disruption: Indian IT outsourcing firms, which have traditionally placed large numbers of mid-level workers in the US, could find the new rules restrictive.
Green Card Criticism
Alongside changes to H-1B visas, Lutnick criticised the earnings of current Green Card recipients. “We give green cards – the average American makes $75,000 a year and the average green card recipient $66,000 a year. Why are we doing that? It’s like picking the bottom core,” he argued.
The remarks are striking given the long backlog faced by Indian applicants, who sometimes wait more than a decade for permanent residency due to country quotas. For families already caught in this queue, the prospect of further tightening adds to the uncertainty.
The “Gold Card” Proposal
Perhaps the most dramatic announcement is the planned Gold Card programme, which would grant permanent US residency to foreigners who invest at least $5 million.
“That’s the gold card that’s coming. And that’s where we’re gonna start picking the best people to come into this country,” Lutnick said. He suggested demand could be strong enough to generate $1.25 trillion in capital from up to 250,000 potential applicants.
Implications
The proposal signals a two-tiered system: one track for high-earning professionals, and another for wealthy investors.
Economic boost: Capital inflows could strengthen infrastructure, housing, and start-ups.
Barrier for professionals: For skilled workers without substantial wealth, the Gold Card will remain out of reach.
Equity concerns: Critics argue the system prioritises money over merit, cementing inequalities in access to migration.
Trump’s Position
The reforms are framed within a broader political context. President Donald Trump has previously praised the importance of attracting talent, telling reporters earlier this year: “You got to get the best people. We have to have the quality people coming in. By doing that, we’re expanding businesses, and that takes care of everybody.”
Yet his administration’s approach reflects a clear “America First” ethos: welcoming only the most highly paid workers and wealthiest investors.
Impact on Indian IT and Skilled Labour
The changes would reverberate across India’s technology sector, which has long used the H-1B as a bridge to the American market.
IT outsourcing firms: Companies like Infosys, Wipro and TCS may have to pivot towards remote service models or expand more aggressively into Europe and Canada.
Individual professionals: Senior engineers and data scientists may still qualify under wage-based rules, but younger graduates could be excluded.
Family uncertainty: The Green Card backlog remains unresolved, leaving thousands of Indian families in limbo.
Global Competition
The US is not alone in recalibrating its migration policy. Canada has aggressively marketed its Global Talent Stream, which fast-tracks visas for tech workers. Australia employs a points-based system that balances age, skills and demand. Meanwhile, the European Union has expanded its Blue Card for highly skilled migrants.
If the US narrows its gateway, other destinations stand to benefit from the pool of skilled Indian professionals.
Preparing for Change
For Indian workers, the policy shift demands a strategic response:
Upskill into premium fields such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and biotech to secure higher-wage offers.
Monitor regulatory updates closely, particularly USCIS announcements on implementation timelines.
Consider alternatives in Canada, Europe and Asia, where immigration pathways may remain more accessible.
Weigh entrepreneurial options, though the $5 million threshold for the Gold Card is far beyond the reach of most professionals.
Conclusion
The United States appears set to reshape its immigration priorities, emphasising wealth and wages over chance and diversity. The proposed wage-based H-1B allocation and the investor-driven Gold Card represent a dramatic departure from the existing lottery system.
For Indian professionals—the group most dependent on the programme—the reforms bring a complex mix of opportunities and risks. Top earners may thrive, but younger workers and families stuck in the Green Card backlog could face an increasingly uncertain future.
As global competition for talent intensifies, the choices made in Washington will reverberate far beyond US borders, influencing where the next generation of skilled Indian professionals choose to build their futures.